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Prediction for CME (2023-11-24T10:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-24T10:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27863/-1
CME Note: This CME is faintly seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an M1.1 class flare from AR13499 (S18W02) peaking at 2023-11-24T09:33Z, with moving/opening field lines seen to the SW of the active region. There is no evidence of arrival in real time solar wind timelines at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-27T01:08Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
SIDC URSIGRAM 31125
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Nov 2023, 1300UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 022 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 220 / AP: 024 PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Nov 2023  10CM FLUX: 270 / AP: 016


...Coronal mass ejections: A CME as seen in Lasco C2 on 24 November 10:00 UT is believed to be associated with the M1.1 flare with source region 3489, occurring on 24 November 09:34 UT. The CME has the potential of a glancing blow early 27 of November.
Lead Time: 35.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-11-25T13:42Z
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